5 Things to Watch on the Economic Calendar This Coming Week

Investing.com - In the week ahead, investors will continue to focus on U.S. economic reports to gauge if the world's largest economy is strong enough to withstand a hike in interest rates in the coming months, with Friday’s nonfarm payrolls data in the spotlight. There is also U.S. ISM data on both manufacturing and service sector activity.

Thursday’s rate announcement from the Bank of England will be in focus, amid mountings expectations the central bank will step up monetary stimulus to counteract the negative economic shock from the Brexit vote.

Elsewhere, in China, market players will be looking out for data on the country's manufacturing sector, amid ongoing concerns over the health of the world's second biggest economy.

Outside the G7, traders will be awaiting a monetary policy announcement from the Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday, amid growing expectations for a cut in interest rates.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of the five biggest events on the economic calendar that are most likely to affect the markets.

1. U.S. jobs report for July

The U.S. Labor Department will release its July nonfarm payrolls report at 12:30GMT, or 8:30AM ET, on Friday.

The consensus forecast is that the data will show jobs growth of 175,000, following an increase of 287,000 in June, the unemployment rate is forecast to hold steady at 4.9%, while average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.2% after gaining 0.1% a month earlier.

An upbeat employment report will point to an improving economy and support the case for higher interest rates in the coming months, while a weak report would add to uncertainty over the economic outlook and push prospects of tighter monetary policy further off the table.

2. Bank of England rate decision

The Bank of England will release its rate decision, minutes of its Monetary Policy Committee meeting and its quarterly inflation report at 11:00GMT, or 07:00AM ET, on Thursday. BoE Governor Mark Carney will address the financial press at 11:30GMT, or 7:30AM ET.

A Reuters poll of economists published on July 26 predicted the British central bank would cut its benchmark interest rate to 0.25% from 0.50%, but most said it would not revive itsmassive bond-buying program for now.

Expectations for more easing mounted after BoE Governor Mark Carney recently suggested interest rate cuts and additional stimulus will likely be needed over the summer to offset the hit to the economy from Britain's decision to leave the European Union.

3. China manufacturing PMIs

The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing is to release data on July manufacturing sector activity at 01:00GMT on Monday, or 9:00PM ET Sunday, followed by the Caixin manufacturing index at 01:45GMT, or 9:45PM ET.

The official China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index is forecast to remain unchanged at 50.0 in July, while the Caixin survey is expected to inch up to 48.7 from 48.6 in the preceding month. A reading below 50.0 indicates industry contraction.

4. U.S. ISM PMI surveys

The U.S. Institute of Supply Management is to release data on July manufacturing activityat 14:00GMT, or 10:00AM ET, on Monday. The gauge is expected to inch down 0.2 points to 53.0. Anything above 50.0 signals expansion.

Meanwhile, the ISM is to report on July service sector activity on Wednesday, amid expectations for a modest decline.

5. Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision

The RBA's latest interest rate decision is due on Tuesday at 4:30GMT, or 12:30AM ET. Most economists expect the central bank to cut interest rates to a historic low of 1.50% from 1.75%, in an effort to boost sluggish inflation.

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Supply And Demand VS Support And Resistance

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If we had to explain the differences in one phrase, we would say that "Supply and Demand" is the only true "support and resistance". Let us explain this further. If you asked random novice traders "what is support and resistance for you?", one might reply the 200 EMA (exponential moving average), while another one might say, this or that trendline, or the piercing of a Bollinger Band, this or that overbought/oversold indicator, the extreme readings of some magic oscillator, a thousand other things, or any of a million combinations of all the above. Each trader can believe different things to be support or resistance, and one trader's support might be another trader's resistance. But Supply and Demand can only be one thing.

Let's examine a completely imaginary (hypothetical) situation, where we could have real-time access to all the world's open orders in the market. Let's say that current EURUSD price was 1.2500, and we could see that there were huge (institutional) buy orders waiting at 1.2350, and then at 1.2230, while there were huge sell orders waiting at 1.2660, and 1.2710. In this imaginary scenario, we would be able to make a lot money easily and almost without any risk, because we would know that as soon as price fell to the first strong demand level below current price at e.g. 1.2350 (where demand is much greater than supply) price would jump upwards and would keep going up until it met a point were supply exceeds demand. There can be no other mathematical outcome for price direction, it has to go up because demand at that level exceeds supply. No matter what any indicators, oscillators, trend lines, news, experts, or astrology and magic crystal balls suggest, price has to go up from a level where demand is much greater than supply. Similarly, when price reaches a level where the huge sell orders (bank, institutional etc.) are waiting to be filled, price can only go down, because as soon as the last (novice) buy orders are filled by the exceeding supply, price will collapse and keep going down until it meets demand that can cover all that supply.

But in the real world we don't have access to all the world's open orders. So how can we take advantage of Supply and Demand imbalances? How can we find price levels where demand is much greater than supply, in order to buy just above that level and enjoy a low risk entry and a high possible reward? Or how can we find price levels where supply greatly exceeds demand, in order to sell short just below that level?

Traders today have easy access to great trading tools. These are not the complicated indicators and oscillators that all lag price and only signal you after price has done something, and usually when it is too late to take advantage of the opportunity. The simplest historical-price multiple-timeframe charts have all the information you need in order to analyse Supply and Demand in any market. Let us show it to you.

The following example has of course been prepared with the benefit of hindsight (can't avoid that in examples), but as a subscriber to our signals service, you can see in real-time that Supply and Demand works like this:

Please note that the above screenshot is just an over-simplified example. In no way does it show you how to properly assess Supply and Demand levels. Proper Supply and Demand analysis is much deeper, and is based on many different factors which are NOT demonstrated above. This image is just for illustration purposes, but even as a Free Trial subscriber you will have access to real, detailed Supply and Demand analysis, with all trading methodologies exposed and explained for your benefit.

Take a look at the level marked with the green lines. This is a level that contained remaining unsatisfied Demand after price left the level. How do we know that? From the outcome: price left the level with a strong rally that lasted, and moved prices a lot higher (more details on this in another educational article). This can only happen when Demand at some level is much larger than the Supply there. When the existing Supply was exhausted, prices rallied leaving behind big amounts of unsatisfied demand. Knowing this, we could enter a buy order at a price just above the start of the demand level, with a stop just below the level. Look at the market reaction next time price touched the top of the green level. You guessed right, price rallied again. This has nothing to do with a double-bottom pattern, the prices where the market reversed are not even close to a bouble-bottom pattern. The price where the market turned has to do only with the point that pre-existing unsatisfied demand starts (at the top of the marked level, although the price could have reversed anywhere in that level). Take a look at any other level, and you will see the same thing happen again and again. Let's take the blue level for example. This is a Supply level that contained unsatisfied Supply when the price left the level, and we know that because of the way price left the level (sharp drop) and from how far price moved before it managed to return back to the level. When price left the blue level initially, the supply there was so much larger than the demand at that level, that price collapsed and kept going down for a long time and distance, leaving behind large unsatisfied amounts of Supply. Knowing this, why not enter a sell order just below the level, and take advantage of the existing supply there for a low risk entry? Would that level and our trade definitely work? No, but chances would be on our side, and that's the most important thing in trading.

Think about this: a novice trader might want to buy up there, right below the supply level marked in blue, because some moving average turned up, or some oscillator suggested accelerating prices upwards, or because the news were really good. What that novice trader doesn't know is that he/she will be buying close to a level where there is a ton of supply waiting to be filled, and prices cannot move further up unless all of that supply can somehow be covered by new incoming demand. Chances are against the novice trader making that mistake, and any professional trader would be happy to sell to that novice buyer near that supply level.

So that's the difference between "Supply and Demand" and "support and resistance", these two concepts, strategies, call them what you like. Support or resistance can be anything that any trader thinks can affect the price in any way. And one trader's support might be another trader's resistance or the opposite. But Supply and Demand can only be one thing,  and that is the true, existing, unsatisfied supply and demand in any market, predictable in a reliable way by those that know what to look for, how to evaluate levels, and have a rule based strategy and plan to follow, thus having the chances on their side when trading. Not all levels work, but if a supply and demand trader can enjoy an acceptable win/loss ratio, and a great reward ratio, what more would someone need in order to be a successful trader? 

Will all levels work? Of course not, but enough will work to allow an experienced  supply and demand trader to profit from the markets. The reasons why a level might not work are many. Imagine a huge multinational company having the need to sell billions of euros to buy another currency. They might chose a demand level to do that in order to satisfy their own supply, causing any demand level to fail badly. Would that stop us from trading the next demand or supply level? Of course not. Long-term the chances are on our side, and every time we see a solid demand or supply level that meets all our criteria, we will be interested in placing an order in the market.

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Track The Largest Traders With The COT Report

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Talking Points:

• What Is The Commitment of Traders Report?
• Who Are the Players In The Report?
• How to Read CoT for Directional Bias

What Is the Commitment of Traders Report?

How would you like to know what the smartest guys and girls in the room are doing? Thanks to a requirement by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the largest futures traders in the world are required to report their positions which can easily be tracked due to the margin they must pay to hold their large positions which the CFTC has been publishing since 1962 and since 2000, every Friday at 3:30ET pm. This information can be of extreme help due to the people who come into the Futures market like hedge funds to make a return above their respective index or some of the largest companies in the world with real-time data of the health of the economy that come to the futures market to hedge their exposure to price fluctuations of raw materials that they use to make their product or preform their service.

Learn Forex: CoT Report for Euro FX (EURUSD) as of 01/28/2014

Courtesy of CFTC

It may be helpful to think of the CoT report as a sentiment indicator with a lot more depth than most indicators. The depth, of course, comes from the fact that the readings are based on the largest future traders and can help you see when large fortune-500 companies switch their outlook on something that you’re trading. In short, this report provides incredible levels of insider intelligence that you’d be hard-pressed to find in another avenue.

Who Are the Players In The Report?

Commercials – Using the futures market primarily for hedging unfavorable price swings to their daily operations. They likely have the best insight as to what the demand and future is for the market as a hole and have some of the deepest pockets. These players are also known as commercial hedgers.

Examples: Coca Cola in the Sugar Market or American Airlines in the Gasoline Market

Non-Commercials (Speculators / Funds) – Traders, whether hedge-funds are large individuals, who have no interest in taking delivery but are rather in the market for profit and meet reportable requirements of the CFTC.

Examples: Hedge Funds and large banks or large Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs)

Nonreportable Positions – Long & Short open interest on positions that don’t meet reportable requirements, i.e. small traders.

Examples: This is the leveraged players without deep pockets and are shaken out on big moves, similar to the DailyFX SSI.

How to Read the CoT for Directional Bias?

Upon the first reading of the CoT, you may be confused how future positions in USD, JPY, GBP or EUR could be helpful for trading EURUD, USDJPY, or EURGBP. There is a lot to learn about the Commitment of Traders report but what’s often helpful is to find when there is a very strong divergence between large speculators and large commercials.

Learn Forex: Look to See What Hedge Funds Are Buying Selling

Courtesy of CFTC

Learn Forex: Non-Commercials / Hedge Funds Sold USDJPY Longs & Charts Confirm This

Presented by FXCM’s FXCM Trading Station 2.0

The first place to start with is a clean understanding of Net Positioning which is shown clearly on the reportsand the week over week differential of major market bias (circled above). It may be helpful to know that what you’re looking for isn’t as much the specific number but a clear sign in % of open interest or bias so that you see Non-Commercials / Funds flipping against the primary trend. Furthermore, when you see a key flip in sentiment of non-commercials / funds who are in it for the money and not to be hedged like commercials, and there is a confirmation on the charts that a trend is exhausting, you are likely trading in the direction of the big kids.

As you can see from the last report in January, the number of funds off-loading the JPY shorts increased dramatically from the week prior. When you see this type of shift from major funds, you can look for other signs that show the prior trend is losing steam and that maybe you should exit the trade too. The chart above of USDJPY notes that there have been 4 bearish key days on USDJPY since the start of 2014 at the same time non-commercials have unloaded their USDJPY longs / JPY shorts giving credence that this move down may have more to go.

Another excellent tool, is the Commitment of Traders Analysis from DailyFX. This weekly report provides analysis of the CFTC report, showing the positioning of Forex futures trades with a synopsis of the key flips in positioning. This report also helps traders by providing 52-week percentiles of major moves so you can see if we’re currently at annual bullish / bearish extremes so that you should be tightening stops or looking for price action to confirm the funds are selling out so that you can follow.

Bottom Line: Look for Chart Validation of what the Non-Commercial Are Doing. When you have a large percentage (greater than 10%) of non-commercials flipping their bias, it’s time for you to take note. Lastly, if you want to really juice up your understanding of market sentiment, you can get a better feel for how a sample group of non-reportables or smaller traders like FXCM customers are positioned in OTC FX via the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index which is updated twice a day.

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Standard Procedures for Trading Account Funding - Deposit, Withdrawal and Internal Transfer

Local current exchange rates updated at July 2016:

Deposit

USD 1 = RM 4.40

Withdrawal

USD 1 = RM 4.20

For International traders, please contact us for respective rates

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5 Things to Watch on the Economic Calendar This Coming Week

Investing.com - In the week ahead, investors will be looking to Wednesday’s highly-anticipated Federal Reserve policy statement for fresh guidance on the pace of interest rate hikes over the next several months.

Elsewhere, market participants will be awaiting a monetary policy announcement from the Bank of Japan on Friday, amid growing expectations for further stimulus.

Traders will also be looking ahead to data on U.S., U.K. and European second quarter gross domestic product for fresh indications on the health of the global economy in wake of Britain's shock vote last month to exit the European Union.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of the five biggest events on the economic calendar that are most likely to affect the markets.

1. Fed rate decision

The Federal Reserve is not expected to take action on interest rates at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting at 18:00GMT, or 2:00PM ET, on Wednesday, as policymakers wait for the dust to settle from Britain's decision to leave the EU.

A recent string of better than expected data reignited speculation that the U.S. central bank will raise interest rates before the end of the year. Interest rate futures are currently pricing in a 16% chance of a rate hike by September. December odds were at 45%, compared with less than 20% a week ago and up from 9% at the start of this month.

2. BOJ policy announcement

The Bank of Japan's latest monetary policy announcement is due during Asian morning hours on Friday. Central bank Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will hold a press conference afterward.

Speculation has mounted in recent weeks that the BOJ will cut its main interest rate deeper into negative territory and expand its monetary stimulus program in an effort to help the domestic economy emerge from deflation and fend off possible adverse effects from Brexit.

A recent Reuters poll showed 85% of analysts expect the BOJ to ease on July 29, alongside the fiscal spending boost Abe is set to announce this month.

The BOJ has already implemented negative interest rates and is printing 80 trillion yen ($750 billion) a year to stimulate inflation after decades of deflation and stagnant growth, yet inflationary expectations appear to be weakening.

3. U.S. advanced second quarter growth data

The U.S. is to release preliminary figures on second quarter economic growth at 12:30GMT, or 8:30AM, Friday. The data is expected to show that the economy expanded at a healthy 2.6% annual rate in the April-to-June quarter, improving from growth of 1.1% in the first quarter.

Recent U.S. economic data, including June housing starts, retail sales, ISM manufacturing and employment were all better than expected, suggesting that economic growth regained speed in the second quarter.

4. U.K. preliminary Q2 GDP figures

The Office for National Statistics is to produce preliminary data on U.K. economic growth for the second quarter at 08:30GMT, or 4:30AM ET, on Wednesday, although the number will be seen as less relevant in the wake of the Brexit decision.

The report is forecast to reveal the economy grew 0.5% in the three months ended June 30, after expanding 0.4% in the preceding quarter, confirming that the British economy went into the EU referendum on a solid footing.

Growth is expected to slow down sharply in the second half of the year as U.K. businesses face uncertainty over the country’s future direction in wake of the Brexit vote.

5. Euro zone second quarter flash GDP

The euro zone will publish its first estimate on second quarter economic growth at 09:00GMT, or 5:00AM ET, on Friday. The consensus forecast is that the report will show the economy grew 0.3% in the April-June period, after expanding 0.6% in the preceding three months.

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The Science of Trading: Supply and Demand

FEATURED ARTICLE

How many times have you heard someone say "trading is an art, not a science"?

I have heard that for years and years and I have to say, it is probably the most ridiculous statement I have heard when it comes to trading and as we all know, there are some pretty ridiculous statements in the trading world.

IT'S A NUMBERS GAME

There is absolutely nothing artistic about trading at all. This is 100% a numbers game. How much willing demand and supply at each price level is what determines price movement. It's the buy orders versus the sell orders and again, it all comes down to the numbers on both sides of that equation and nothing else. To think Picasso or Van Gough should be brought into this discussion is rather amusing if you think about it.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

I began my career many years ago on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), facilitating institution and bank order flow. What I realized very quickly was the fact that the movement of price in any and all markets is a function of supply and demand.

Therefore, trading opportunity exists at price levels where this simple and straight forward equation is out of balance. You simply buy where the major buy orders are and sell where the major sell orders are.

After spending time on the trading floor and then looking at price charts online, I taught myself to identify these orders on a price chart, the picture that represents a major supply and demand imbalance. To make my point, let me share a very recent trade I setup for my students in our live trading room.

THE SETUP

While the strategy I am about to lay out for you works the same in any time frame and market, let's focus on a short term trade for our example so we can see the entire strategy play out on one clear chart. About an hour before the stock market opened, I was sharing a chart of the NASDAQ with my students.

Notice the area shaded yellow, with the black lines extending right. According to supply and demand, that area shaded yellow was a key supply level. Meaning, institutions/banks had large orders to sell at that level, there was a significant supply and demand imbalance at that level.

We know this because price could not remain at that level and declined in strong fashion after a very short period of time. Think about it, if that statement was not true and supply and demand were in balance at that level, price would have remained at that level but, it couldn't because supply and demand were very much "out of balance."

THE CHART QUANTIFIES SUPPLY AND DEMAND

When I was at the CME and had the orders in front of me, I knew exactly what the supply and demandequation was. Most people think that because today, we look at price charts and don't see the orders, we can't truly quantify supply and demand and perhaps that's where some of the "artsy" talk comes from but... think again... I would argue that we can quantify supply and demand by looking at a price chart.

In fact, I would argue that it's easier than being on the floor of the exchange because the price charts represent all buyers and sellers. On the trading floor, you can only see what is in front of and around you. To quantify supply and demand on a price chart, I use what I call "odds enhancers." While there are a few of them, let me go over two to help get you thinking in the right direction. I mentioned price spent very little time at that supply level above, this is a key point.

ODDS ENHANCER #1

The stronger the move in price away from a price level, the more out of balance supply and demand is at the level.

Price can move away from an area in one of three ways. It can be gradual, strong, or gap. The gap represents the strongest imblance. In our example here, notice the initial move away from the supply level was strong suggesting institutions were selling at that level.

ODDS ENHANCER #2

The less time price spends at a level, the more out of balance supply and demand is at the level.

Notice on that same chart, there was very little trading activity in the area shaded yellow. Trading books tell us when looking for key support and resistance levels, look for areas on the chart where there was lots of trading activity, many candles on the screen, above average volume, and so on... If you think the simple logic through, I think you will find the opposite to be true. At price levels in any market wheresupply and demand is most out of balance, you are going to get very few transactions (trades), not many. Therefore, that picture on a chart is going to be few candles on the screen, not many like most trading books say and this was the case in our trading opportunity above.

THE RESULT

As you can see on the chart above, a bit into our trading session, the NASDAQ rallied up to the supply level, offering us an opportunity to sell short with a 2 point stop and a 14 point profit target. The 14 point profit target comes from that circled area on the chart. Notice there is no demand in that circled area. This means that price should have a very easy time falling through that area once price turned at our supply level.

Lastly, when price reached supply, we always want to know who we are selling to. We need to make sure we are selling to a novice retail trader. The way we answer this questions is this: Is the buyer in this case who is buying from us making the same two mistakes every novice trader makes? Specifically, is the buyer we are selling to buying after a rally in price (mistake number one) and into a price level where supply exceeds demand (mistake number two). If the answers are yes and the risk reward meets the minimum criteria we are looking for, we take the trade like a robot.

PLAN AHEAD

The mathematical equation we mapped out in ADVANCE played out as we thought and our profit target was achieved. If you think art had anything to do with this, I have a great piece of dessert property in Nevada I will sell you for half price. It's really special sand that cleans your feet when you walk on it. It's normally $10,000 a square foot but I will give it to you for $5,000 so hurry up. I'm kidding of course but you see when I was on the institution side of the trading business, it was very clear how and why price moved in any market.

BIDS AND OFFERS

At the CME, they didn't have Monet's or Picasso's on the wall, they had bids and offers. If I wanted to see art, I would walk down Monroe Street to Michigan Avenue and go to the Art Institute.

Goldman Sachs doesn't start out each trading day with a company meeting to discuss artistic opportunities in the market; every single decision is based on inventory, order flow, risk/reward, and so on. The key is to stick to the basic principles of how you make money buying and selling anything as that is exactly how you achieve profits speculating in the financial markets.

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Original author: Sam Seiden

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5 Things to Watch on the Economic Calendar This Coming Week

Investing.com - In the week ahead, market players will be focusing on the outcome of Thursday’s European Central Bank meeting to see if policymakers will step up monetary stimulus to counteract the negative economic shock from the Brexit vote.

Investors will also be looking to Friday’s survey data on euro zone business activity, as well as a report on German business confidence, for fresh indications on the health of the region’s economy in wake of Britain's vote to exit the European Union.

Meanwhile, the U.K. will stay in the spotlight as key economic indicators for the British economy are released.

In the U.S., investors will eye a pair of reports on the housing sector to gauge if the world's largest economy is strong enough to withstand further rate hikes in 2016.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of the five biggest events on the economic calendar that are most likely to affect the markets.

1. European Central Bank policy meeting

The European Central Bank's interest rate decision is due at 11:45GMT, or 7:45AM ET, on Thursday, with most of the focus likely to be on President Mario Draghi's press conference45 minutes after the announcement.

The consensus is that the ECB will leave interest rates on hold, while Draghi is forecast to strike a dovish tone and perhaps hint at further stimulus to offset the hit to the economy from Britain's decision to leave the European Union.

2. Flash euro zone PMIs for June

The euro zone is to publish preliminary data on manufacturing and service sector activity for July at 08:00GMT, or 4:00AM ET, on Friday, amid expectations for a modest decline.

Ahead of the euro zone PMI's, France and Germany will release their own PMI reports at 07:00GMT and 07:30GMT respectively.

3. German ZEW business survey

The ZEW Institute will publish its July German business climate index at 09:00GMT, or 5:00AM ET, on Tuesday, amid expectations for a sharp deterioration from 19.2 to 9.1, as the Brexit shock hit business confidence. The current conditions index is also forecast to decline, from 54.5 to 52.0.

4. U.K. CPI, employment & retail sales data

The U.K. Office for National Statistics will release data on consumer price inflation for June at 08:30GMT, or 4:30AM ET, on Tuesday. Analysts expect consumer prices to rise 0.4%, after increasing 0.3% a month earlier.

At 08:30GMT, or 4:30AM ET, Wednesday, the ONS will publish the latest jobs report. The amount of people receiving jobless benefits is expected to rise by 4,000 in June, with theunemployment rate holding steady at 5.0%, while wage growth including bonuses is forecast to rise 2.3%.

On Thursday, the ONS will produce a report on June retail sales at 08:30GMT, or 4:30AM ET, amid expectations for a decline of 0.6% last month. Core sales are forecast to fall 0.7%, as British consumers are thought to have slowed down on their purchases both before and after the referendum.

The U.K. will close out the week with a reading on July manufacturing sector activity at 08:30GMT, or 4:30AM ET, Friday. The manufacturing PMI is forecast to inch down to 49.4 from 52.1 a month earlier.

The Bank of England held off from cutting rates last week, but hinted that it will ease monetary policy at its next meeting in August as it devises the exact size and nature of its stimulus measures.

5. U.S. housing data

The Commerce Department is to publish a report on housing starts and building permits for June at 12:30GMT, or 8:30AM ET, on Tuesday. The data could show that permits rose 0.6%to 1.150 million last month, while housing starts are forecast to inch up 0.5% to 1.170 million.

On Thursday, the National Association of Realtors is to release data on existing home sales for June at 14:00GMT, or 10:00AM ET, amid forecasts for a decline of 0.7% to 5.47 million.

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