Pick-Of-The-Day: 08.09.2016 AUD/USD

Purely analysis. No signal, just info. Trade wisely at your own risk.

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Pick-Of-The-Day: 07.09.2016 NZD/USD

Purely analysis. No signal, just info. Trade wisely at your own risk.

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Pick-Of-The-Day: 06.09.2016 AUD/USD

Purely analysis. No signal, just info. Trade wisely at your own risk.

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Pick-Of-The-Day: 05.09.2016 USD/JPY

Purely analysis. No signal, just info. Trade wisely at your own risk.

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The Week Ahead: 5 Things to Watch on the Economic Calendar

Investing.com - In the week ahead, market players will be focusing on the outcome of Thursday’s European Central Bank meeting to see if policymakers will step up monetary stimulus to boost inflation and prop up the economy in wake of the Brexit vote earlier in the summer.

Elsewhere, China is to release what will be closely watched trade and inflation data amid ongoing concerns over the health of the world's second biggest economy.

In the U.S., a report on service sector growth will be the highlight of the holiday-shortened week. U.S. markets will remain closed on Monday for Labor Day.

Meanwhile, in the U.K., traders will be awaiting data on activity in the services sector for further indications on the continued effect that the Brexit decision is having on the economy.

Outside the G7, market participants will be awaiting a monetary policy announcement from the Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of the five biggest events on the economic calendar that are most likely to affect the markets.

1. European Central Bank Policy Meeting

The European Central Bank's interest rate decision is due at 11:45GMT (7:45AM ET) on Thursday, with most of the focus likely to be on President Mario Draghi's press conference45 minutes after the announcement.

The consensus is that the ECB will leave interest rates on hold for the time being, while Draghi is forecast to strike a dovish tone and perhaps hint at further stimulus to offset the hit to the economy from Britain's decision to leave the European Union.

A recent Reuters poll of economists showed that slow growth and virtually non-existent inflation will force the ECB to extend and expand the scope of its asset purchase program in the coming months.

2. Chinese Trade Report for August

China is to release August trade figures at around 02:00GMT on Thursday (10:00PM ET Wednesday). The report is expected to show that the country’s trade surplus widened to $58.3 billion last month from $52.3 billion in July.

Exports are forecast to have dropped 3.5% in August from a year earlier, following a decline of 4.4% a month ago, while imports are expected to slump 1.2%, after plunging 12.5% in July.

Additionally, on Friday, the Asian nation will publish data on August consumer and producer price inflation. The reports are expected to show that consumer prices rose 1.7% last month, while producer prices are forecast to fall by 1.0%.

3. U.S. ISM Services PMI

The U.S. Institute of Supply Management is to release data on August service sector activity at 10:00AM ET (14:00GMT) on Tuesday. The gauge is expected to inch down 0.5 points to 55.0. Anything above 50.0 signals expansion.

The data takes on extra importance after the ISM manufacturing survey published last week showed a shocking contraction in activity.

Besides the services PMI, the coming holiday-shortened week could be a relatively quiet one with Wednesday's Fed Beige Book release and JOLTS jobs turnover data also in focus.

4. U.K. August Services PMI

The U.K. will release a reading on August service sector activity at 08:30GMT (4:30AM ET) on Monday. The services PMI is forecast to improve to 50.0 from 47.4 a month earlier.

Data released last week data showed that the manufacturing and construction PMI's both beat expectations, suggesting that the British economy remained resilient in wake of the U.K.’s decision to leave the European Union.

The U.K. will also produce a report on July manufacturing production at 08:30GMT (4:30AM ET) Wednesday.

5. Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision

The RBA's latest interest rate decision is due on Tuesday at 4:30GMT (12:30AM ET). Most economists expect no policy change, after the central bank surprised with a 25 basis point rate cut at its previous meeting to a historic low of 1.50% in an effort to boost sluggish inflation and spur economic activity.

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Sembang Santai FX 1/2016

Bismillah...

Salam

Apa khabar? Ini kali pertama kita 'bersemuka'. Dah 3 bulan weblog ni bersiaran, cuma ini julung kalinya ada kesempatan untuk berkongsi minda bersama rakan traders dan pembaca sekalian.

9500 hits... and counting !! Itulah statistik sokongan dan dokongan anda kepada kami walau wadah ini baru berusia 3 bulan. TERIMA KASIH !! Meski ucapan itu tidak mungkin mampu menyatakan keterharuan kami atas usaha kerdil ini. Ia belum lagi termasuk statistik memberangsangkan yang tercatat di capaian media-media sosial kendalian kami (Facebook - menghampiri limit 5000 Friends sehingga kami dinasihatkan untuk upgrade ke Fanpage Myfxprestige4u; Instagram - menghampiri 200 Followers; etc). Humbly speaking, semua ini tidak mungkin tercapai tanpa keyakinan dan kepercayaan anda !

Selama tempoh tersebut, kami cuba sedaya mungkin untuk meletakkan konsep dan halatuju weblog ini sebagai wadah perkongsian pendapat dan ilmu pengetahuan yang terkait dengan dunia niaga pasaran kewangan (financial market). Moments dan events tertentu yang telah dan sedang berlangsung yang memberi kesan dan impak kepada 'perjalanan' pasaran kewangan dunia turut cuba kami, pihak editorial, garap dan kongsikan di dada weblog ini.

Mmmm... mungkin ada yang bertanya, apa objektif sebenar weblog ini diwujudkan. Okay... jangan serius sangat. Kita sembang santai-santai saja :)

Secara teknikalnya, weblog ini adalah 'frontpage' kepada team trading kami - MyFXPrestige Team - yang bernaung di bawah FXPrestige, sebuah firma broker kewangan yang sedang menempa reputasi membanggakan di persada niaga pasaran kewangan dunia. Alhamdulillah, Team kami telah dilantik sebagai Consultant Introducer Broker (CIB) kepada firma tersebut dan kini kami turut memiliki sekurang-kurangnya 7 Introducer Brokers (IB) yang sedia berkhidmat untuk menyelaras serta membantu-selia transaksi dan aktiviti trading para traders yang memilih FXPrestige sebagai platform. Kami juga diberi kepercayaan untuk mengelolakan local depositor gateway untuk urusan e-point deposit dan e-point withdrawal kepada para pelanggan secara telus dan sistematik.

Silakan explore kandungan dan capaian-capaian yang terdapat di weblog ini. Kami beriltizam untuk menyediakan pengalaman 'one-stop centre' kepada para pelanggan dan rakan traders sekalian. Selain capaian untuk pendaftaran akaun (tab: Account Registration), akses langsung kepada Presto Room juga disediakan di samping kemudahan-kemudahan analisis pasaran (tabs: Trading Resources dan Trading Analytics), rujukan pengetahuan (tab: Academy/ Library) serta Blog Archieves.

Dari segi pengisian Featured articles pula, kami begitu berhati-hati di dalam memilih content yang ingin disiarkan. Kebiasaannya kami memilih artikel-artikel yang relevan dan ditulis oleh seseorang yang dianggap authority dan pakar dalam bidang masing-masing. Ini kerana kami mendapati terlalu banyak varian di segi pandangan dan view para pengkarya sehingga seringkali ia lebih bersifat mengelirukan. Sementelah, kami juga memahami bahawa kalangan pembaca adalah para traders aktif yang memerlukan contents yang jelas dan spesifik serta bersifat analitikal. Sudah pasti sebagai traders aktif, kita ingin mengelak 'noise' dalam pasaran agar tidak mengganggu ketepatan keputusan yang dicanai.

Demikian, para traders juga boleh mendapatkan akses langsung kepada live market commentary yang dikelolakan oleh penyedia satellite TV Bloomberg dan SkyNews melalui pautan khas yang kami sediakan.

Pautan secara langsung juga boleh didapati di weblog ini untuk akses ke akaun-akaun media sosial kendalian kami seperti Facebook, Google+, Twitter, Instagram, Telegram channel, YouTube channel,  LinkedIn dan E-mail. Dan seandainya anda perlu menghubungi kami secara mudah boleh sahaja meninggalkan teks mesej ringkas di kotak pesanan yang disediakan. Kami juga menyediakan aplikasi android iPresto yang dihubungkan secara terus dengan weblog ini dan portal analisis pasaran serta media sosial kendalian kami, namun ia masih lagi di peringkat ujian beta dan hanya tersedia kepada para traders kami.

Bagi mereka yang berminat untuk bergabung di bawah Team MyFXPrestige, baik sebagai IB mahupun trader, sila hubungi kami dan rasai pengalaman berbeza bersama. Malahan, bagi para pembaca yang bersedia untuk berkongsi rasa dan catatan perjuangan peribadi sebagai traders, kami alu-alukan keterlibatan anda mengimarahkan wadah ini bersama. Caranya? Hubungi kami!

Teman-teman seperjuangan yang budiman,
Kami memahami keperluan dan sensitiviti anda, kerana kami juga adalah traders sepenuh masa seperti anda. Kami juga berkongsi impian terindah yang sama seperti anda! Dan kami meraikan hubungan erat yang sihat penuh hormat yang sedia terjalin di antara Team kami dengan firma broker FXPrestige.

Banyak lagi yang akan kita kongsikan di masa hadapan, insyaALLAH. Tips-tips dan cadangan strategi, teknik serta analisis pasaran dan pengurusan akaun serta catatan pengalaman di sepanjang meniti denai perjuangan di lautan pasaran kewangan yang serba mencabar tapi menggiurkan ini! Perancangan juga sedang dibuat untuk sesi roadshows dan kempen promo anjuran Team MyFXPrestige dengan kerjasama sihat firma broker dan rakan-rakan pasukan lain yang bernaung di bawah FXPrestige. Democratization of financial trading!

Sungguh banyak lagi yang ingin dikongsikan!

Namun buat detik pertama ini, rasanya cukup setakat ini dahulu sebagai 'ice-breaking' di antara kita.

Salam taqzim dari saya dan Team:

Happy wise trading !!

Passionately passionate. We are.

ZuryFX

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Pick-Of-The-Day: Monthly Performance Report (August 2016)

Scope : Daily Financial Market Analysis
Method : Fibo TuPai 618 Analytics System
Feature : Pick-Of-The-Day

• Week 1 (01.08.2016 - 05.08.2016)
• Instrument/ Asset Class : N/A
• Result : N/A
• Week 2  (08.08.2016 - 12.08.2016)
• Instrument/ Asset Class : GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, Gold, NZD/USD, Brent Oil
• Result : Nett Profit 931 pips
• Week 3 (15.08.2016 - 19.08.2016)
• Instrument/ Asset Class : EUR/JPY, USD/JPY, AUD/USD
• Result : Nett Profit 97 pips nett
• Week 4 (22.08.2016 - 26.08.2016)
• Instrument/ Asset Class : Gold, CAD/JPY, AUD/USD, NZD/USD
• Result : Nett Profit 188 pips
• Week 5 (29.08.2016 - 31.08.2016)
• Instrument/ Asset Class : EUR/JPY, USD/CHF
• Result : Nett Profit 46 pips

• Monthly Performance
• Pips-Gain Statistic
• Total Pips Gain : 0 + 997 + 116 + 188 + 46 = 1347 pips
• Total Pips Loss : 0 + 66 + 19 + 0 + 0 = 85 pips
• Nett Pips Gain : 0 + 931 +97 + 188 + 46 = 1262 pips
• Total % Nett Pips Gain : 93.7 %
• Analysis Accuracy
• Total Analysis Published : 0 + 5 + 4 + 4 + 2 = 15
• Total Analysis - Accurate : 0 + 4 + 3 + 4 + 2 = 13
• Total Analysis - Deviant : 0 + 1 + 1 + 0 + 0 = 2
• Nett % Analysis Accuracy : 86.7 %

• References Link : Please click HERE to view the Trading Journal

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Pick-Of-The-Day: Weekly Performance Report (29.08.2016 - 02.09.2016)

Scope : Daily Financial Market Analysis
Method : Fibo TuPai 618 Analytics System
Feature : Pick-Of-The-Day

• Monday (29.08.2016)
• Instrument/ Asset Class : EUR/JPY
• Result : Profit 21 pips
• Tuesday (30.08.2016)
• Instrument/ Asset Class : USD/CHF
• Result : Profit 25 pips 
• Wednesday (31.08.2016)
• Instrument/ Asset Class : No issuance - Rest day (Malaysia Independence Day)
• Result : N/A
• Thursday (01.09.2016)
• Instrument/ Asset Class : No issuance - Rest day (Personal)
• Result : N/A
• Friday (02.09.2016)
• Instrument/ Asset Class : No issuance in anticipation of US NFP data release (scheduled at 8.30pm MYT)
• Result : N/A

• Weekly Performance
• Pips-Gain Statistic
• Total Pips Gain : 46 pips
• Total Pips Loss : 0 pips
• Nett Pips Gain : 46 pips
• Total % Nett Pips Gain : 100.0 %
• Analysis Accuracy
• Total Analysis Published : 2
• Total Analysis - Accurate : 2
• Total Analysis - Deviant : 0
• Nett % Analysis Accuracy : 100.0%

• References Link : Please click HERE to view the Trading Journal

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Simple US NFP Forex Strategy

Featured Article

This simple non-farm payroll forex strategy allows you capitalize on the most volatile moments in the forex market. On the first Friday (sometimes the second Friday) of each month at 8:30 AM EST  the non-farm payroll (NFP) data is released. This is the most trusted source traders, investors and institutions use to track the US employment situation, which sheds light on the strength of the economy and potentially inflation. The report causes a massive reshuffling in positions, and seeing a 100 pip movement in the GBP/USD in the moments following the announcement is not uncommon.

On a typical Friday, the GBP/USD will move approximately 100 pips (10-week average as of Oct. 22, 2013). On a non-farm payroll release day, intraday movement can be much larger. For current weekday and hourly volatility see the Daily Forex Statistics page.

Non-farm Payroll Forex Strategy Setup

The strategy uses the GBP/USD and a 15-minute chart. A 15-minute chart allows the initial volatility to subside, but still allows us to capture a large potential move once the market participants make a more rational decision about whether they want to buy or sell based on the news. This is the trend this non-farm payroll forex strategy attempts to capture…the rational trend which follows the initial surge.

The EUR/USD could also be used, but since the GBP/USD usually has a bigger daily range than the EUR/USD it provides great opportunity. A 5-minute chart can also be used, but is prone to more false signals.

Non-farm Payroll Forex Strategy Rules

1. Do nothing for the first 15 minutes after the NFP announcement. A wide-ranging price bar will occur between 8:30 to 8:45 AM EST. This bar is of no concern.

2. Wait for an inside bar. An inside bar is a 15-minute price bar where the high and low are completely inside a prior bar range.

Figure 1. Wide Ranging and Inside Bars for Non-Farm Payroll Forex Strategy – 15-Minute Chart

Figure 1 shows a wide-ranging bar followed by an inside bar. The inside bar doesn’t always immediately follow a wide ranging bar. Depending on volatility and the strength of the initial push, we may need to wait a couple bars in order for an inside bar to occur. The inside bar doesn’t need to be inside the wide ranging bar either, we just need a bar that is inside another bar. This shows us the market has calmed down, and is likely to soon choose its more rational direction.

3.  The high and low of the inside bar become your trade triggers. If the price rises above the high of the inside bar, buy. If the price drops below the low the inside bar, sell.

4. Place a 30 pip stop initially, or place it below the most recent low if you bought, or above the most recent high if you sold. But your stop should not exceed 30 pips.

Figure 2. Non-Farm Payroll Forex Strategy Entry and Stop Example – 15 Minute Chart

In this example, the initial inside bar which followed the wide ranging bar is used for the trade trigger. Following the initial inside bar, two more inside bars followed. This basically created a range, so in this case waiting for the breakout of that range was prudent. Either of these other inside bars could technically be used as trade triggers though.

The horizontal blue dotted lined shows the entry, which is set a pip or two above the inside bar high. The dotted line in the lower part of the screen marks the stop-loss order. Initially the stop loss is set to 30 pips, but in this case it was moved up to just below the recent lows, reducing the risk to 25 pips.

We do not need to wait for a bar to close in order to enter a trade. As soon as the high or low of the inside bar is pierced, take the trade.

5. Exit 4 hours after your entry. This is a timed exit. Once the trend begins it will often last for about 4 hours. If you enter at 9:15 AM, exit the trade at 1:15 PM EST. Exit at 2:00 PM EST even if it has not been 4 hours since your entry. By 2:00 PM other factors are likely to start affecting the pair, and most of the movement based on the NFP number will be exhausted.

6. Don’t take more than 2 trades. If you get stopped out on 2 trades, the movement is too choppy. Stash the strategy away until the next non-farm payroll number, or other high impact news release.

7. This step is optional, but you can implement some sort of trailing stop to avoid giving up your profit if the trend reverses while holding the position. As the trend progresses, move the stop to just below recent swing lows if you are long, or just below recent highs if you are short.

Figure 3 shows the whole GBPUSD trade for the  October 22 2013 Non-farm payroll release. In a rare event, the data was released on a Tuesday due to the US government shutdown on the Friday the data was supposed to be released. Ultimately the trade produced about a 54 pip profit at the 4-hour time target. Original risk was 25 pips, but could have been trailed up, locking in a profit, after the first consolidation. Sometimes wins will much bigger, and other times slightly smaller.

Figure 3. NFP Forex Strategy in GBPUSD with Entry Stop and Timed Target – 15-Minute Chart

Non-Farm Payroll Forex Strategy – Considerations and Pitfalls

Overall I have been using this strategy–or one very similar to it–for than 5 years, and find it to be a reliable strategy. It can experiences strings of losses though. The worst days are when 2 false signals occur in one day, which means 40 to 60 pips could be lost. This is rare, but can occur. Although, on any choppy day a trend following strategy is likely to experience more losses. Profits are usually much larger than losses on winning trades, which should more than offset losing trades.

If the GBP/USD doesn’t move much following the non-farm payroll announcement, then the news release is likely a “non-event” and the strategy should not be employed. Ideally we want to see a 50+ pip spike (up or down) following the announcement, which lets us know there is some reshuffling of positions and a trend is likely to ensue.

This strategy can be used on other major news releases, such as interest rate announcements, assuming there is a strong burst of activity following the announcement, and a valid trade signals occurs like in the example above.

As a final note, don’t take trades just before the announcement trying to predict which way the market will spike. Even if you guess right, you’re likely to experience extreme slippage, and therefore your risk is unknown. Better to wait for a valid trade signal like the one provided above, and trade the trend that happens after the spike.

This strategy is included in the The Forex Trading Strategies Guide for Day and Swing Traders eBook. Read the book for way more strategies and information you can use to conquer the forex market.

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By Cory Mitchell, CMT

Read the Original HERE

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