The Week Ahead: 5 Things to Watch on the Economic Calendar

Investing.com - Global financial markets will focus on Wednesday’s minutes of the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting for further hints on the timing of the next U.S. rate hike.

Investors will also keep an eye on key U.S. economic data, with Friday's monthly employment report in the spotlight.

Meanwhile, in the U.K., traders will focus on a trio of reports on activity in the manufacturing, construction and services sectors for further indications on the continued effect that the Brexit decision is having on the economy.

Elsewhere, in the euro zone, market participants will pay close attention to a report on German factory orders to gauge the health of the region's largest economy.

Outside the G7, market participants will be looking ahead to a monetary policy announcement from the Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of the five biggest events on the economic calendar that are most likely to affect the markets.

1. Fed FOMC Meeting Minutes

The Federal Reserve will release minutes of its most recent policy meeting on Wednesday at 2:00PM ET (18:00GMT).

The U.S. central bank raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points following its meeting on March 15 and stuck to its projection for two more hikes this year.

There are also a few Fed speakers in the coming week, with New York Fed President William Dudley, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker and Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker all set to speak Monday. Dudley is on tap again on Friday.

The Fed is not expected to raise interest rates again until June, according to market pros. Futures traders are pricing in around a 50% chance of a hike at the Fed's June meeting, according to Investing.com’s Fed Rate Monitor Tool. Odds of a September increase was seen at about 75%.

2. U.S. March Nonfarm Payrolls Report

The U.S. Labor Department will release its March nonfarm payrolls report at 8:30AM ET (12:30GMT) on Friday.

The consensus forecast is that the data will show jobs growth of 180,000, following an increase of 235,000 in February, the unemployment rate is forecast to hold steady at 4.7%, while average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3% after gaining 0.2% a month earlier.

Besides the employment report, this week's data-heavy calendar also features reports on U.S. auto sales, construction spending and ISM manufacturing on Monday; trade figures and factory orders on Tuesday; ADP private sector nonfarm payrolls and the ISM non-manufacturing survey on Wednesday; weekly jobless claims on Thursday, followed by wholesale inventoriesand consumer credit on Friday.

Headlines from Washington will also be in focus, as traders await further details on President Donald Trump's promises of tax reform and infrastructure spending.

A meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and President Trump at his Mar-a-Lago retreat on Thursday and Friday will also be on investors' radar.

3. U.K. March PMI's

The U.K. will release readings on March manufacturing sector activity at 08:30GMT on Monday, followed by a report on the construction sector on Tuesday and the service sector on Wednesday.

The manufacturing PMI is forecast to rise to 55.1 from 54.6 a month earlier, construction activity is expected to improve slightly to 52.6 from 52.5, while a survey on Britain's giant services sector is forecast to inch up to 53.5 from 53.3 last month.

Besides the PMI's, the U.K. is due to release data on home prices, manufacturing productionand the trade balance.

The Bank of England voted to keep interest rates unchanged last month, but the decision was split with one of the nine members voting to raise rates for the first time since July given the recent spike in inflation.

4. German February Factory Orders

Germany will publish data on factory orders for February at 06:00GMT Thursday. The data is expected to show a gain of 4.0%, following a sharp drop of 7.4% in January.

There will also be German, French and Spanish industrial production data due on Friday. All are expected to show growth, adding to evidence that the euro zone's economy is gaining momentum.

In addition, the European Central Bank is scheduled to publish the minutes of its March policy meeting on Thursday.

5. Reserve Bank of Australia Policy Meeting

The RBA's latest interest rate decision is due on Tuesday at 04:30GMT.

Most economists expect the central bank to keep rates unchanged at the current record-low of 1.5% for the ninth straight meeting and maintain its neutral policy stance, given the economy's convincing rebound last quarter, rising commodity exports and a robust increase in household debt levels.

Besides the RBA, monthly retail sales, building approvals and trade figures will also be in focus.

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Week Review: Top 5 Things That Moved Markets This Past Week

Investing.com – Top 5 things that rocked U.S. markets this week.

Brexit officially kicked off

Wednesday, March 29, was an historic day, as the UK triggered Article 50, which starts the legal process by which Britain will leave the European Union (EU).

The dollar halted a 3-week losing streak

The dollar recovered against a basket of major currencies on Friday, and delivered its best weekly performance since mid-February, buoyed by a flurry of bullish comments from several Federal Reserve officials over the past week.

U.S. crude futures slid nearly 6% in Q1 

Crude prices settled above the key $50-level on Friday but ended the quarter in negative territory, down 5.8%, as traders questioned the sustainability of the OPEC-led production cut agreement.

Gold delivered best quarter in a year

Gold prices gained 8% in the first quarter of this year, after a less hawkish than expected Federal Reserve statement concerning the pace of rate hikes and uncertainty over the outcome of the European elections supported upside momentum in the yellow metal, which is considered a safe-haven asset.

Tesla closed 3% higher for the week

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) (NASDAQ:TSLA) Inc. closed nearly 3% higher for the week, after the California-based electric carmaker said on Tuesday, Chinese giant Tencent acquired a 5% stake for $1.78 billion.

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The Week Ahead: 5 Things to Watch on the Economic Calendar

Investing.com - Global financial markets will shift their focus to Brexit-related events in the week ahead, with British Prime Minister Theresa May expected to notify the European Union of Britain's intention to leave, starting two years of unprecedented negotiations.

Meanwhile, in the U.S., more than a dozen Federal Reserve policymakers, including Chair Janet Yellen, are due to make public appearances that may offer insight into the likelihood of higher interest rates in the months ahead.

Traders will also keep an eye out on a final reading of U.S. fourth-quarter economic growth for confirmation that the narrative of stronger growth is intact.

Elsewhere, investors will await monthly inflation data out of the euro zone to assess the timing of when the European Central Bank will start unwinding its massive asset purchase program.

In China, market players will be looking out for data on the country's manufacturing sector, amid ongoing concerns over the health of the world's second biggest economy.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of the five biggest events on the economic calendar that are most likely to affect the markets.

1. U.K. Set to Trigger Article 50

British Prime Minister Theresa May is set to trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, which officially kicks off the process of exiting the European Union.

May will send a letter to European Council President Donald Tusk formally announcing Britain's withdrawal from the bloc on Wednesday. Tusk will then send draft negotiating guidelines to the 27 other member states within 48 hours.

The correspondence will start the clock ticking on a two-year countdown to Brexit and allow negotiations to start between London and Brussels in the coming weeks.

Besides Brexit-related developments, traders will be looking ahead to a final reading on U.K. fourth-quarter economic growth on Friday for further indications on the continued effect that the Brexit decision is having on the economy.

The report is forecast to confirm the economy grew 0.7% in the final three months of last year. On a year-over-year basis, the economy is expected to grow by 2.2%, underlining the view that the British economy remains on a solid footing.

The Bank of England voted to keep interest rates unchanged earlier this month, but the decision was split with one of the nine members voting to raise rates for the first time since July given the recent spike in inflation.

2. Fed Speakers Take Center Stage

On Monday, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans and Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplanare scheduled to deliver comments.

Tuesday sees Fed Chair Janet Yellen speak on workforce development challenges in low-income communities at 9:50AM ET (14:50GMT).

Kansas City Fed President Esther George, Dallas Fed President Kaplan and Fed Governor Jerome Powell are also on tap Tuesday.

On Wednesday, Chicago Fed's Evans, Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren and San Francisco Fed President John Williams make public appearances.

Thursday sees Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, Dallas Fed's Kaplan, San Francisco Fed's Williams and New York Fed President William Dudley deliver comments.

Finally, on Friday, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard are scheduled to make public appearances.

The Fed raised interest rates earlier this month, but stuck to its outlook for two more hikes this year, instead of three expected by the market.

Fed fund futures priced in around a 45% chance of a rate hike in June, according to Investing.com’s Fed Rate Monitor Tool. Odds of a September increase was seen at about 70%.

3. U.S. 4th Quarter GDP - Third Estimate

The U.S. is to release final figures on fourth-quarter economic growth at 8:30AM ET (13:30GMT) Thursday. The data is expected to show that the economy expanded at a healthy 2% annual rate in the final three months of 2016, upwardly revised from a preliminary estimate of 1.9%.

Besides the GDP report, this week's calendar also features U.S. data on consumer confidence on Tuesday, pending home sales on Wednesday, weekly jobless claims on Thursday followed by personal income and spending, which includes the personal consumption expenditures inflation data, the Fed's preferred metric for inflation, on Friday.

Headlines from Washington will also be in focus, as traders await further details on President Donald Trump's promises of tax reform following the House's failure to vote on a plan to replace Obamacare late last week.

4. Euro Zone Flash March Inflation Figures

The euro zone will publish flash inflation figures for March at 09:00GMT (5:00AM ET) Friday.

The consensus forecast is that the report will show consumer prices rose 1.8%, slowing from a gain of 2% in February. Core prices are expected to increase 0.8%, easing from a rise of 0.9% in the prior month.

Spain, France, Italy and Germany will produce their own CPI reports throughout the week.

Despite the upward trend in inflation, ECB President Mario Draghi recently downplayed the significance of rising consumer prices, saying that underlying inflation pressure remains “subdued.”

5. Chinese Manufacturing Data for March

The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing is to release data on March manufacturing sector activity at 01:00GMT on Friday, amid expectations for a modest improvement to 51.7.

On Saturday, the Caixin manufacturing index will be released at 01:45GMT.

Anything above 50.0 signals expansion, while readings below 50.0 indicate industry contraction.

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Week Review: Top 5 Things That Moved Markets This Past Week

Investing.com – Here's a peek at the top 5 things that rocked U.S. markets this week.

The ‘Trumpflation’ trade deflates 

The Dow, S&P 500 and the Nasdaq ended the week in negative, as the House of Representatives’ withdrew a health care bill to repeal and replace parts of Obamacare, after chances of passing the bill appeared slim amid a lack of votes.

U.S. crude futures shed 1.7% for the week

Crude prices slid 1.7% for the week, after crude oil inventories swelled to record highs. The EIA said crude inventories rose by 5 million barrels to 533.1 million for the week ended March 15.

Nike tumbled more than 7%

Shares of Nike Inc (NYSE:NKE) tumbled more than 7% to $53.77 on Wednesday, after the sports brand apparel retailer posted its fiscal third quarter earnings, which missed analysts’ estimates.

Gold notched its second weekly gain

Despite a dip in gold prices on Friday, the yellow metal notched its second weekly gained, as it benefited from a broad based selloff in the dollar.

The dollar dipped to a four-month low against the yen

USD/JPY slumped to a four-month low, as uncertainty concerning the strength of the U.S. stock market increased demand for the yen, which is considered a safe-haven currency.

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I'm Back On Air !!!

Just get back from long haul of sabbatical. Let's roll on ...

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