The Week Ahead: 5 Things to Watch on the Economic Calendar

Investing.com - In the week ahead, market players will be turning their attention to Wednesday’s minutes of the Federal Reserve’s September policy meeting for fresh clues on the timing of the next U.S. rate hike.

U.S. retail sales data will also be in the spotlight, as investors attempt to gauge if the world's largest economy is strong enough to withstand an increase in borrowing costs before the end of the year.

In addition, there are a handful of Fed speakers on tap, including Chair Janet Yellen, as traders look for more clues on the likelihood of a December rate hike.

This week also marks the start of the third-quarter earnings season in the U.S.

Elsewhere, China is to release what will be closely watched trade and inflation data amid ongoing concerns over the health of the world's second biggest economy.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of the five biggest events on the economic calendar that are most likely to affect the markets.

1. Fed FOMC Meeting Minutes

The Federal Reserve will release minutes of its September policy meeting on Wednesday at 2:00PM ET (18:00GMT) as investors search for some clarity on where the U.S. central bank stands on its path toward rate hikes.

The Fed left interest rates unchanged following its meeting on September 21, but hinted that a hike could come in December if the job market continued to improve. At the same time, the U.S. central bank also cut the number of rate hikes it expects next year and in 2018.

The Fed has policy meetings scheduled in early November and mid-December. Economists believe policymakers would avoid a rate hike in November in part because the meeting falls just days before the U.S. presidential election.

Markets are currently pricing in a less than 10% chance of a rate hike at November's meeting, according to Investing.com's Fed Rate Monitor Tool. For December, odds stood at around 65%.

2. U.S. September Retail Sales Report

The Commerce Department will publish data on September retail sales at 8:30AM ET (12:30GMT) Friday. The consensus forecast is that the report will show retail sales rose 0.6% last month, after falling 0.3% in August. Core sales are forecast to inch up 0.4%, after declining 0.1% a month earlier.

Rising retail sales over time correlate with stronger economic growth, while weaker sales signal a declining economy. Consumer spending accounts for as much as 70% of U.S. economic growth.

3. Fed Speakers

A handful of Fed policymakers are due to make public appearances that may offer insight into how divided they are about raising rates in the coming months.

On Monday, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans will speak on monetary policy and the economy at 10:00PM ET (2:00GMT on Tuesday).

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari is to deliver comments at 11:00AM ET (15:00GMT) Tuesday.

On Wednesday, New York Fed President Bill Dudley speaks with the Business Council of New York State at 8:00AM ET (12:00GMT), while Kansas City Fed President Esther George speaks at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Annual Payments Symposium at 9:40AM ET (13:40GMT).

Thursday sees Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker and Minneapolis Fed PresidentNeel Kashkari make public appearances.

Finally, Fed Chair Janet Yellen is scheduled to speak on "macroeconomic research after the crisis" at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston’s Annual Research Conference at 1:30PM ET (17:30GMT).

4. U.S. Q3 Earnings Season Kicks Off

Analysts expect third-quarter earnings will show a 0.7% decline from a year ago, while revenue for the past quarter is expected to have increased 2.5%, which would be the first year-over-year sales increase for S&P 500 companies since the end of 2014.

Earnings season unofficially kicks off Tuesday with Alcoa (NYSE:AA)'s quarterly results. The climax comes Friday with earnings from major banks Citigroup (NYSE:C), JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) and recently battered Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC).

5. China September Trade Data

China is to release September trade figures at around 02:00GMT on Thursday (10:00PM ET Wednesday). The report is expected to show that the country’s trade surplus widened to $53.0 billion last month from $52.0 billion in August.

Exports are forecast to have dropped 3.0% in September from a year earlier, following a decline of 2.8% a month ago, while imports are expected to rise 1.0%, after increasing 1.5% in August.

Additionally, on Friday, the Asian nation will publish data on September consumer and producer price inflation. The reports are expected to show that consumer prices rose 1.6% last month, while producer prices are forecast to fall by 0.3%.

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LIVE 2016 US Presidential Debate 2/3 - Donald Trump vs Hillary Clinton

LIVE US Presidential Debate

Donald Trump vs Hillary Clinton

The Second Presidential Debate 2016 is at 9:00 PM - 10:30 PM (ET) on

Sunday, October 9

[9.00am - 10.30am MYT, Monday, October 10]

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The Week Ahead: 5 Things to Watch on the Economic Calendar

Investing.com - Global financial markets will continue to focus on U.S. economic reports in the week ahead to gauge if the world's largest economy is strong enough to withstand a hike in interest rates before the end of the year, with Friday’s nonfarm payrolls data in the spotlight. There is also U.S. ISM data on both manufacturing and service sector activity.

In addition, there are a handful of Fed speakers on tap as market players look for more clues on the likelihood of a December rate hike.

Elsewhere, in the U.K., traders will be awaiting reports on activity in the manufacturing, construction and services sectors for further indications on the continued effect that the Brexit decision is having on the economy.

Outside the G7, market participants will be awaiting a monetary policy announcement from the Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of the five biggest events on the economic calendar that are most likely to affect the markets.

1. U.S. jobs report for September

The U.S. Labor Department will release its September nonfarm payrolls report at 8:30AM ET (12:30GMT) on Friday.

The consensus forecast is that the data will show jobs growth of 170,000, following an increase of 151,000 in August, the unemployment rate is forecast to hold steady at 4.9%, while average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3% after gaining 0.1% a month earlier.

An upbeat employment report will point to an improving economy and support the case for higher interest rates in the coming months, while a weak report would add to uncertainty over the economic outlook and push prospects of tighter monetary policy further off the table.

2. U.S. ISM PMI surveys

The U.S. Institute of Supply Management is to release data on September manufacturing activity at 10:00AM ET (14:00GMT) on Monday. The gauge is expected to rise to 50.3, after falling to a seven-month low of 49.4 a month earlier.

On Wednesday, the ISM will report on September service sector activity, amid expectations for a reading of 53.0. In August, the gauge dropped to 51.4, its weakest level since February 2010.

Anything above 50.0 signals expansion, below indicates contraction.

3. Fed speakers

A handful of Fed policymakers are due to make public appearances that may offer insight into how divided they are about raising rates in the coming months.

On Tuesday, Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker is due to speak on the economic outlook at 8:05AM ET (12:05GMT), while Chicago Fed President Charles Evans will speak on monetary policy and the economy at 7:40PM ET (23:40GMT).

On Wednesday, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Richmond Fed PresidentJeffrey Lacker are on tap.

Finally, Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, Fed Governor Lael Brainard and Kansas City Fed President Esther George are all scheduled to speak on Friday.

Markets are currently pricing in around a 10% chance of a rate hike in November, according to Investing.com's Fed Rate Monitor Tool. For December's meeting, odds were at nearly 62%.

4. U.K. September PMI's

The U.K. will release readings on September manufacturing sector activity on Monday, followed by a report on the construction sector on Tuesday and the service sector on Wednesday.

The manufacturing PMI is forecast to inch down to 51.1 from 53.3 a month earlier,construction activity is expected to decline slightly to 49.0 from 49.2, while a survey on Britain's giant services sector is forecast to dip to 52.0 from 52.9 last month.

The Bank of England kept monetary policy on hold last month, but indicated that it could cut interest rates again as soon as November unless the economy picks up.

5. Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision

The RBA's latest interest rate decision is due on Tuesday at 3:30GMT (12:30AM ET). Most economists expect no policy change, after the central bank surprised markets in August with a 25 basis point rate cut to a historic low of 1.50% in an effort to boost sluggish inflation and spur economic activity.

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Selamat Tahun Baharu Hijrah 1438 ...

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Salam Tahun Baharu Hijrah

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ikhlas dan taqzim dari kami:

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Fibo TuPai 618 'Pick-Of-The-Day': Notice of System Upgrading

Dear fellow followers/ readers,

Please take note that the Fibo TuPai 618 'Pick-Of-The-Day' services will be unavailable for 2 weeks from 19th-30th September 2016 following a system upgrading exercise undertaken. The free-services will be continued for usual publication from 3rd October 2016 on-wards, insyaALLAH.

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The Week Ahead: 5 Things to Watch on the Economic Calendar

Investing.com - In the week ahead, market players will be turning their attention to fresh comments from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen as expectations start to grow for a December rate hike.

Meanwhile, investors will be focusing on a pair of speeches from European Central Bank President Mario Draghi for fresh hints on whether the ECB will step up monetary stimulus in the coming months to boost inflation and prop up the economy.

In addition, remarks by Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will be eyed in wake of last week's decision by the BOJ to modify its policy framework.

Elsewhere, oil traders will be awaiting the outcome of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries get-together on Wednesday to see whether a deal can be reached to limit production.

Another big event for markets could be the first U.S. presidential debate on Monday.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of the five biggest events on the economic calendar that are most likely to affect the markets.

1. Fed Chair Yellen Speaks

After holding off on a rate hike last week, the Fed is keeping itself in the market's sights, with Fed Chair Janet Yellen testifying before the House Financial Services Committee on regulation and supervision Wednesday at 10:00AM ET (14:00GMT).

On Thursday, Yellen is due to speak via videoconference at the Minority Bankers Forum in Kansas City at 4:00PM ET (20:00GMT).

Her comments will be monitored closely for any new insight on policy. Last week, the U.S. central bank kept interest rates unchanged but hinted that an increase could come in December if the job market continued to improve.

2. ECB President Draghi Delivers Comments

ECB President Mario Draghi is due to testify before the European Parliament's Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs in Brussels on Monday at 15:05GMT (11:05AM ET).

On Wednesday, Draghi is scheduled to speak about current developments in the euro area at the German Bundestag, in Berlin at 14:30GMT (10:30AM ET).

Investors will be looking for indications that the ECB is moving towards boosting monetary stimulus at its December meeting.

3. BOJ Governor Kuroda Remarks in Focus

BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda is due to speak at the National Securities Industry Convention in Tokyo on Thursday at 6:35GMT (2:35AM ET).

His comments take on extra importance after the Japanese central bank announced that it will shift policy to targeting interest rates on Japanese government bonds as the focus of its massive stimulus program, abandoning its target of increasing base money.

4. OPEC Meeting

OPEC members, led by Saudi Arabia and other big Middle East crude exporters, such as Iran and Iraq, will meet non-OPEC producer Russia at informal talks on the sidelines of an energy conference in Algeria from Monday through Wednesday.

According to market experts, chances that the meeting would yield any action to reduce the global glut appeared minimal. Instead, most believe that oil producers will continue to monitor the market and possibly postpone freeze talks to the official OPEC meeting in Vienna on November 30.

An attempt to jointly freeze production levels earlier this year failed after Saudi Arabia backed out over Iran's refusal to take part of the initiative, underscoring the difficulty for political rivals to forge consensus.

5. U.S. Presidential Debate

With just over six weeks until Election Day in the U.S., the market will turn its attention to the first televised U.S. presidential debate Monday night.

Market participants are mostly expecting Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton to win the presidency and have not factored in the implications of a victory for Donald Trump. The idea of Trump in the White House is a worrying one for some investors who balk at his populist, unpredictable style.

Recent polls have shown a tightening race, with Clinton's once-comfortable lead narrowing sharply. The latest NBC/ Wall Street Journal poll gives Clinton a 6 point lead, 43% to Trump's 37%, among likely voters.

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FXPrestige Notice of Client Server Migration and Upgrade - 25th September 2016

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The Week Ahead: 5 Things to Watch on the Economic Calendar

Investing.com - In the week ahead, investors will be looking to Wednesday’s highly-anticipated Federal Reserve policy meeting, amid ongoing speculation over the timing of the next U.S. rate hike.

Traders will also eye a number of reports on the U.S. housing sector to gauge the strength of the world's largest economy.

Elsewhere, market participants will be awaiting a monetary policy announcement from the Bank of Japan on Wednesday, amid growing expectations for further stimulus.

Investors will also be looking to Friday’s survey data on euro zone business activity for fresh indications on the health of the region’s economy in wake of Britain's vote to exit the European Union.

Outside the G7, traders will be awaiting a monetary policy announcement from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on Wednesday.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of the five biggest events on the economic calendar that are most likely to affect the markets.

1. Fed rate decision

The Federal Reserve is not expected to take action on interest rates at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting at 2:00PM ET (18:00GMT) on Wednesday.

The central bank will also release its latest forecasts for economic growth and interest rates.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen is to hold what will be a closely-watched press conference 30 minutes after the release of the Fed's statement, as investors look for any change in tone about the economy or future rate hikes.

Speculation about the timing of the Fed's next interest rate hike has shaken major stock indexes this month following contrasting comments from top Fed officials.

Markets are currently pricing in just a 12% chance of a rate hike next week, according to Investing.com's Fed Rate Monitor Tool. For December, odds stood at around 55%.

In the unlikely case of a rate hike, the U.S. dollar will shoot higher. In the more likely scenario in which rates remain unchanged, the focus will be on the Fed's statement as well as the updated interest rate forecasts. A more hawkish message, which would leave the door open for a rate hike in December, will be dollar-positive, while a dovish statement will result in a dollar sell-off.

2. BOJ policy announcement

The Bank of Japan's latest rate decision is due during Asian hours on Wednesday. The BOJ will also publish a monetary policy statement, where it will present a comprehensive assessment of its policies.

Central bank Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will hold a press conference afterward to discuss the decision.

Speculation points to a possible interest rate cut deeper into negative territory, tweaks to its asset-purchase program or new rules on the duration of securities it will purchase in the bond market.

The BOJ has already implemented negative interest rates and is printing 80 trillion yen ($750 billion) a year to stimulate inflation after decades of deflation and stagnant growth, yet inflationary expectations appear to be weakening.

Disappointment over the BOJ's announcement could see the yen strengthen against thedollar and euro.

3. August U.S. housing data

The Commerce Department is to publish a report on housing starts and building permits for August at 8:30AM ET (12:30GMT) on Tuesday. The data could show that permits rose2.5% to 1.170 million last month, while housing starts are forecast to decline 1.7% to 1.190 million.

On Thursday, the National Association of Realtors is to release data on existing home salesfor August at 10:00AM ET (14:00GMT) amid forecasts for a gain of 1.1% to 5.45 million.

4. Flash euro zone PMIs for September

The euro zone is to publish preliminary data on manufacturing and service sector activity for September at 08:00GMT (4:00AM ET) on Friday, amid expectations for a modest decline.

Ahead of the euro zone PMI's, France and Germany will release their own PMI reports at 07:00GMT and 07:30GMT respectively.

5. Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate review

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s monetary policy update is due at 21:00GMT (5:00PM ET) on Wednesday. Most market analysts expect the central bank to keep rates steady after cutting them by 25 basis points to a record low 2.0% last month.

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